The post-Brexit future of farming
In an article headed "UK farmers risk seeing incomes halve after Brexit", the Financial Times writes today that UK farmers benefit from EU common agricultural policy payouts to the tune of €3.1bn each year, mostly through farm income support, and that Defra reports the average British farmer to have depended on such subsidies for 86% of their income in 2016.
From these key facts, it is obvious that our farming system will come off badly from Brexit once we have left the EU, just eighteen months from now. No business operation in any sector can suddenly lose 86% of its income without suffering ill-effects. This must inevitably lead to a major (and negative) effect on the economy of Suffolk Coastal, which is largely rural.
Of course, the UK government has pledged to match the current funding level until 2020. But will they distribute the funds to individual farmers in the same proportion as the current arrangement? What will happen to UK farming after 2020? Will the government favour large agricultural enterprises at the expense of smaller individual farms? Do we really trust a Conservative government to fund those elements of the farming economy which matter most to us, or will they pander to their vested interests, in the form of big business and party donors?
Last week, the National Farmers' Union (NFU) proposed a three-phase approach to a new, post-Brexit domestic agricultural policy:
- An initial two-year phase preserving the existing common agricultural policy measures, with opportunities to implement minor improvements and to pilot new ideas for a future new system.
- A review and assessment phase (while still maintaining common agricultural policy legacy schemes), once the post-Brexit political environment and trading conditions are better understood so that their impact on farming can be analysed.
- A "switch to a new, bold and ambitious domestic agricultural policy", the timing to depend on the results of an impact assessment performed by the government during Phase 2, and on a clear understanding of the effects of the new policy changes.
Unfortunately, detail is light on exactly what this "new, bold and ambitious domestic agricultural policy" might entail, although the NFU document Vision for the Future of Farming: A New Domestic Agricultural Policy suggests that "farming should maintain current levels of public investment through this new policy framework, but recognise that in the future this may be delivered in different ways, directly or indirectly to farmers, for instance through fiscal incentives, environmental schemes or ensuring farmers benefit from cutting edge developments in R&D".
With a proposal embracing a two-year post-Brexit replication of the current funding, followed by a review and assessment period maintaining the current funding, followed by an unspecified timeframe before introducing changes that maintain the current level of funding, it looks as though farmers are trying to prolong the status quo for as long as they can. Which makes one wonder why, exactly, farmers are widely reported to have voted so strongly in favour of Brexit.
Sources:
Financial Times, "UK farmers risk seeing incomes halve after Brexit", https://www.ft.com/content/cd9323b8-ad0e-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4 [accessed 10 October 2017]
National Farmers' Union, "NFU sets out vision for leaving the CAP", https://www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-news/nfu-sets-out-vision-for-leaving-the-cap/ [accessed 10 October 2017]
National Farmers' Union, "Vision for the Future of Farming: A New Domestic Agricultural Policy: delivering for farmers and for the public", https://www.nfuonline.com/assets/94690 [accessed 10 October 2017]