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A nightmare scenario - Is this really what we voted for?

October 1, 2018 6:00 PM

Deal or No Deal - time to end this madness and return to the people

by Jon James

Without a deal with the European Union, the UK would move from seamless trade with our biggest trading partner to customs arrangements set by the World Trade Organisation with no preferential deals.

Its not just UK business that will be affected. Forty years of treaties, agreements and partnership arrangements will come to an end covering almost every aspect of our daily life. Replicating regulatory frameworks, relabelling virtually everything that moves and renegotiating access with EU states will take months and possibly years. The International Monetary Fund said Britain's economy would suffer "substantial costs" should it leave the EU without a deal.

The Department for Exiting the European Union published a further 25 technical notices at the end of September covering everything from taking your dogs on holiday, exporting uk mineral water to airline regulations and labels on packaged food.

In a preamble to all the notices, DEXIT states: 'Negotiations are progressing well and both we and the EU continue to work hard to seek a positive deal'. However with six months to go until we are due to leave the EU, Theresa May has warned that "negotiations are at an impasse and the EU must come up with new proposals on how to craft a divorce settlement"

Meanwhile, 'civil emergency' plans have been dusted down to send in the army to deliver food, medicines and fuel in the event of shortages if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal. These include the use of helicopters and the army to transport supplies to vulnerable people outside the southeast who are struggling to obtain their medicines.

In total the government has now published more than 65 'no-deal Brexit' notices heralding a nightmare scenario for businesses operating in Britain. The notices cover large parts of the British economy including:

Applying for EU-funded programmes, Driving and transport, Farming, Handling civil legal cases, Importing and exporting, Labelling products and making them safe, Meeting business regulations, Money and tax, Personal data and consumer rights, Protecting the environment, Regulating energy, Regulating medicines and medical equipment, Regulating veterinary medicines, Satellites and space, Seafaring, State aid, Studying in the UK or the EU, Travelling between the UK and the EU, Workplace rights.

Should anyone wish to take comfort from these 'preparatory technical notices' then read on. They do indeed set out the massive task but significantly not the costs that will confront businesses large and small. They provide few long term guarantees of financial payments and grants to the farming community and other key sectors and in very many cases businesses will have to await the outcome of separate agreements being concluded with EU member states.

"With no agreement in place airlines operating between the UK and the EU would need to seek individual permissions to operate. EU-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate wholly within the UK (for example from Heathrow to Edinburgh) and UK-licensed airlines would lose the ability to operate intra-EU air services (for example from Milan to Paris).

Export Health Certificate (EHCs) would be required for exports of all animal products and live animals from the UK to the EU. Consignments would need to travel through a Border Inspection Post (BIP) within the EU. EHCs would need to be signed by an Official Veterinarian or authorised signatory following inspection of the consignment assuming that there are sufficient veterinarians in the UK to undertake the inspections.

New labelling would be required on all food products and mineral water producers would need to apply to EU members states for recognition of their water through an EU member state. Applications will be treated as third country applications. Use of the term 'EU' in origin labelling would no longer be correct for food or ingredients from the UK," the government said.

Finally, amid warnings that trucks could stack up on both sides of the English Channel in the confusion of a no deal, Britain said it would seek to strike bilateral agreements with European countries to ensure hauliers would retain access.

Brexiteers accept there is likely to be some short-term economic pain and disruption but say the government is trying to scare voters about the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

People's Vote (By Source (WP:NFCC#4), Fair use,

Sources include: Department of Exiting the European Union

By Source (WP:NFCC#4), Fair use,